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Author Topic: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house  (Read 359 times)

 

MOU5ER

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lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« on: March 31, 2010, 05:21:57 am »
Since no-one has posted a PLO hand for comment, for fun I thought I’d post my biggest loss to-date LOL  :) !

FWIW I think its probably just a cooler, but maybe, (as we’re 200bb deep) it could be argued that folding the river is OK?? – my hand is only 3rd nuts by the river and there really cant be that many hands that shove the river. Maybe its interesting from the point of view of how few hands are getting all-in on boards like this for value. If anyone thinks i should fold here, what does that mean for bluffing such rivers (see below)?

RichieRockNRoll (K♦Q♥8♠Q♠)   he’s BB
stacks $399   $401   
MOU5ER 5♦T♦K♠3♥   I’m SB
K♣K♥3♠
8♥ 7♦   $798   1 2 r6 c
b12 r48 c
k b108 c
b237 c    -$399

hopefully thats clear – but basically I raised pre with a fairly trashy hand, but I’m in position so maybe thats OK, then hurrah! I flopped the current nuts and he leads into me so i re-raise pot and get called. At this point I’m a little over a 75% favourite (I guess from a Holdem mentality its interesting that its ‘only’ 75%  ) the pot is a bit over 100 and we have over 300 behind. Then I have the second nuts on the turn, and the third nuts on the river.

Cheers

PS on bluffing on boards like this one – I did try that against a different player earlier when i had trips and felt confident they had a low-ish full house – so I repped the nut FH potting every street and ended up getting called, not by a FH, but by a baby flush (LOL)…so that went well…actually I think thats probably my second biggest loss at this game!
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pokermixu

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Re: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2010, 09:44:19 am »

I think you played fine, Richie got very lucky by hitting 5 outer on turn. He could have easily had pair of 33 or 88 as well, so there wasn’t much to do when the river came else than go with showdown. Certainly scary nut peddler could have folded in the turn or river card , but that’s too tight imho for HU PLO.
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pokermixu

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Re: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2010, 09:49:19 am »
Quote from: pokermixu on March 31, 2010, 09:44:19 am

I think you played fine, Richie got very lucky by hitting 5 outer on turn. He could have easily had pair of 33 or 88 as well, so there wasn’t much to do when the river came else than go with showdown. Certainly scary nut peddler could have folded in the turn or river card , but that’s too tight imho for HU PLO.

EDIT: pair of 33 (AK33 etc.) pair of 88 (AK88 etc.)
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SmokinAl

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Re: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2010, 04:56:10 am »
Hmm, the river lead is pretty suspicious though.

He must have a K to call the flop raise I would think. (I would think 33 would 3-bet the flop to try to get money in before the board gets too scary, and certainly wouldn’t lead the river).

So leading the river would normally mean one of two things…
 – A bluff (not possible given the flop play)
 – The top of his value range.

So I would say the bottom of this "top value" range is K77x? (I don’t think you’d shove with AKxx? And definitely not KQxx). So { K77x, K88x, Kxx7, Kxx8 }?

Heh, guess that might be a fold actually, based on counting the xs. If you think he’ll overvalue AKxx you can call though.

If the river was like a Q, J or maybe 9 I think you can definitely fold without too many regrets, since those cards connect with a pre-flop caller with a K in his hand.

Obviously I am terrible at PLO though :P
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pokermixu

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Re: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2010, 07:55:17 am »
Quote from: pokermixu on March 31, 2010, 09:49:19 am
Quote from: pokermixu on March 31, 2010, 09:44:19 am

I think you played fine, Richie got very lucky by hitting 5 outer on turn. He could have easily had pair of 33 or 88 as well, so there wasn’t much to do when the river came else than go with showdown. Certainly scary nut peddler could have folded in the turn or river card , but that’s too tight imho for HU PLO.

EDIT: pair of 33 (AK33 etc.) pair of 88 (AK88 etc.)

EDIT2: Actually I dont’ know what am I talking about here :) with those examples but bottom line was that it was bad luck and pretty much about what Smokin said about value ranges. It would have been strange bluff because people are playing mostly with more connected cards than unconnected so river A, Q or or J would have been an easier fold, than 8 or 7.
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pokermixu

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Re: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2010, 12:14:47 am »

And to make it yet more complicated – more experienced PLO player might try a bluff if he/she thinks that opponent knows that usually people play connected cards and can’t bluff here without having 8 or 7 :).
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MOU5ER

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Re: lost big pot with vulnerable (?) full-house
« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2010, 05:42:36 am »
Thanks guys for some interesting comments – I think I’m happy up to the river, but I did have some doubts about calling the river which is why I posted the hand. I agree with Al’s analysis and I probably should have folded – its true he did ‘get lucky’ as pokermixu said, but he kind of told us that with the river lead. I think Al convinced me that this cant really be a bluff much at all – certainly not anywhere near often enough to justify a call.

Cheers
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